The Path Al Davis May Take

According to press reports, the Raiders's players are going to petition Al Davis to allow Norv Turner and the coaching staff to keep their jobs. The defensive players in particular feel that their unit has improved dramatically in comparison to last year's model, and they believe in the system. While this view has a lot going for it, I doubt it's enough to save Turner from the axe that will most surely fall on him. The offense's failures, despite the acquisitions of Randy Moss and Lamont Jordan, plus Turner's poor handling of the quarterback situation, make it hard to see how Turner can keep his job.

Defensive coordinator Rob Ryan is another story.

If Davis fires Turner, as everyone expects, it would be hard for him to keep Rob Ryan as defensive coordinator. New head coaches typically prefer to bring in their own staffs, and many candidates would be reluctant to take a head coaching job if they had to accept the incumbent defensive coordinator as a condition of employment. If Davis listens to his defensive players, who like Ryan's defensive system, and Davis has difficulty finding an immediate replacement that would let Ryan stay, there is a way to fire Turner while keeping the defense intact: promote Rob Ryan to head coach.

While Davis prefers offensive-minded head coaches (Flores, Shell, Gruden), there is precedent in Raider history for Davis's promoting a defensive coach. The last time it happened was in 1969 when John Madden, the Raiders's linebacking coach, rose to replace Head Coach Johnny Rauch. And Rob Ryan, a firey guy who looks like he spent the last few years living in the woods, not only has the respect and loyalty of his players, but he's also the only Raiders coach in the last three seasons who's actually presided over an improving squad. Seeing as he managed to develop that defense in spite of a depleted secondary and a linebacking corps that lacks established playmakers, Rob Ryan looks at least as impressive as any of the other coordinators Davis would be likely to interview. Couple Ryan with a good offensive coordinator and some good things might happen.

I'm not saying it will go down this way, but this scenario would allow Davis to please both his defensive players and the ticket holders who (quite reasonably) want to see both Collins and Turner pay for their blunders.