Realignments

Josh Marshall and Max Sawicky discuss the parallels between the congressional elections of 1974 and 2006 here. And for those of us on the left side of the ledger these parallels won't blow a lot of sunshine up our skirts:

But it does at least suggest one point worth considering: the other side's scandals can reshuffle the political cards temporarily. But it probably won't be for that long if the scandals aren't intrinsically connected to the bases of the afflicted party's power or if their fall-out doesn't catalyze a some deeper political and ideological reconfiguration in the country. Nixon's dirty-tricksterism wasn't at the heart of the rise of the American right in the late 20th century. So it continued on without him.

I'm not convinced that the Democrats will do nearly as well in 2006 as they did in 1974. The Right has learned a lot since then, and while none of it has been in the areas of good government that betters people's lives, they've learned better how to contain scandals. They have a well set up media apparatus that Nixon didn't have during Watergate, and they know how to get their people on television to muddy things up just enough so that their boy can get away more or less clean. Further, unlike 1974, we don't have a majority in either house that can do some genuine investigating. Even if we took back the House or Senate this year, the shredders will have been given a year (two if you count the year The New York Times sat on the story) to run. Also, Nixon never had the advantage of a cluck like Joseph Lieberman, who'll throw downfield blocks for Bush by running to every network to caution us about the national security implications of trashing the President. (Isn't bipartisanship sweet?)

And ultimately, even if Bush were to go down, it doesn't mean much unless he brings Dick Cheney, Speaker Dennis Hastert, and Senator Ted Stevens with him. As long as the rich get their money and the fanatics get their judges, they don't care who's delivering the goods. Tear down Bush, they'll put up someone else just like him--another plainspoken guy from the sticks who's honest as the tress are tall and who cares, really truly madly deeply cares, about the poor. He'll call himself a "different kind of Republican", and all his commercials will be in soft focus. And you and I, knowing what unctuous crap is being mass dumped on our minds, will shake our heads, thinking "This can't work again. No way is this going to work again."

It'll work again.

As George Carlin once said "I gave up hope and it worked out fine."